fall 2026DFW Market Update

The numbers

Most local figures are for August 2026, the latest complete month of MLS data available in mid-October.

Mortgage rates jumped this fall

The biggest story this quarter is rates. The 30-year fixed averaged about 6.5% in early July, then climbed past 7% after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September, its first increase since 2023. By mid-October the national average sat at 7.40%, the highest in nearly three years.

For buyers, that adds real money to the monthly payment. On a $400,000 home with 10% down, the jump from 6.5% to 7.4% adds about $217 a month in principal and interest. Try your own numbers in my mortgage calculator.

Prices are holding steady

Despite higher rates, prices haven't dropped. The DFW median sale price was $390,000 in August, essentially the same as a year ago. Fort Worth–Arlington actually posted year-over-year price gains for several months in a row this summer. In Tarrant County, the median was $343,000, down about 3% from last year.

Out west, well-located homes in Aledo and established luxury neighborhoods like Tanglewood, Rivercrest, and Montserrat have held up better than the broader metro.

Inventory is balanced, and fewer sellers are listing

DFW has about 4.3 months of inventory, which is close to a balanced market. There are fewer active listings than a year ago, and new listings are down about 10%, as many owners with low-rate mortgages stay put. Homes are taking a little longer to sell, about 58 days on average, and sellers are getting about 95% of their list price.

What it means for buyers

• You have room to negotiate. With homes sitting a little longer, asking for repairs, closing cost help, or a rate buydown is very reasonable.
• Get pre-approved now. Know your real payment at today's rates, and ask your lender about buydowns and loan options.
• Look at new construction. Builders across Godley, Burleson, and the west side are offering incentives to keep homes moving.
• Marry the house, date the rate. If rates come down later, refinancing is an option. The right home at the right price matters most.

What it means for sellers

• Price it right from day one. More than a quarter of DFW listings have had a price cut. Homes priced correctly at launch sell faster and for more.
• Presentation matters more than ever. Buyers have choices, so fresh paint, bright light, good photos, and staging make the difference.
• Expect some negotiation. Plan for buyers to ask for concessions, and know your bottom line before offers come in.
• Spring is coming. If you're thinking about listing in 2027, now is the time to start prep. My seller guide walks through it.